Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 144,312
2 Rhode Island 143,240
3 South Dakota 140,382
4 Utah 126,714
5 Tennessee 124,176
6 Arizona 121,099
7 Iowa 117,722
8 Wisconsin 115,867
9 Nebraska 115,470
10 South Carolina 115,225
11 Oklahoma 114,524
12 New Jersey 114,423
13 Arkansas 113,122
14 Delaware 111,799
15 Indiana 110,963
16 Alabama 110,826
17 Illinois 109,391
18 Kansas 108,419
19 Florida 108,056
20 New York 107,981
21 Idaho 107,485
22 Mississippi 106,753
23 Minnesota 106,651
24 Nevada 105,107
25 Montana 104,725
26 Wyoming 103,918
27 Georgia 103,525
28 Kentucky 102,975
29 Massachusetts 102,567
30 Texas 101,792
31 Louisiana 101,248
32 Missouri 100,271
33 Michigan 99,150
34 Connecticut 97,423
35 New Mexico 96,727
36 California 95,910
37 North Carolina 95,526
38 Alaska 95,178
39 Colorado 94,841
40 Ohio 94,270
41 Pennsylvania 94,263
42 West Virginia 89,996
43 Virginia 79,144
44 Maryland 76,104
45 New Hampshire 72,608
46 District of Columbia 69,285
47 Washington 57,453
48 Puerto Rico 53,951
49 Maine 50,423
50 Oregon 47,788
51 Vermont 38,814
52 Hawaii 24,744

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 Colorado 83
2 Oregon 73
3 Arizona 70
4 Delaware 63
5 Maine 58
6 Utah 53
7 Illinois 49
8 Hawaii 44
9 Missouri 40
10 Pennsylvania 39
11 South Carolina 39
12 Indiana 38
13 New York 38
14 Minnesota 36
15 Mississippi 34
16 Puerto Rico 34
17 Georgia 33
18 Montana 33
19 Oklahoma 33
20 Washington 33
21 North Dakota 32
22 Maryland 30
23 Arkansas 27
24 Ohio 27
25 Virginia 27
26 New Jersey 26
27 Kentucky 24
28 Wisconsin 23
29 Massachusetts 18
30 Michigan 18
31 New Hampshire 18
32 Iowa 17
33 Vermont 16
34 California 14
35 Texas 12
36 Nebraska 11
37 South Dakota 10
38 North Carolina 2
39 Tennessee 1
40 Alabama 0
41 Alaska 0
42 Connecticut 0
43 District of Columbia 0
44 Florida 0
45 Idaho 0
46 Kansas 0
47 Louisiana 0
48 Nevada 0
49 New Mexico 0
50 Rhode Island 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 2,951
2 New York 2,711
3 Massachusetts 2,592
4 Rhode Island 2,556
5 Mississippi 2,458
6 Arizona 2,421
7 Connecticut 2,310
8 South Dakota 2,276
9 Louisiana 2,274
10 Alabama 2,273
11 Pennsylvania 2,129
12 Michigan 2,038
13 New Mexico 2,034
14 North Dakota 2,024
15 Indiana 2,023
16 Illinois 1,990
17 Arkansas 1,932
18 Iowa 1,919
19 Georgia 1,900
20 South Carolina 1,890
21 Oklahoma 1,842
22 Nevada 1,813
23 Tennessee 1,807
24 Texas 1,782
25 Kansas 1,755
26 Florida 1,712
27 Delaware 1,705
28 Ohio 1,699
29 District of Columbia 1,603
30 California 1,600
31 Maryland 1,590
32 Missouri 1,576
33 West Virginia 1,557
34 Kentucky 1,552
35 Montana 1,509
36 Wisconsin 1,349
37 Minnesota 1,333
38 Virginia 1,310
39 North Carolina 1,249
40 Wyoming 1,242
41 Nebraska 1,228
42 Idaho 1,170
43 Colorado 1,167
44 New Hampshire 995
45 Puerto Rico 783
46 Washington 762
47 Utah 718
48 Oregon 640
49 Maine 613
50 Alaska 481
51 Vermont 408
52 Hawaii 351

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Illinois 2
2 Colorado 1
3 Indiana 1
4 Kentucky 1
5 Maryland 1
6 Michigan 1
7 Minnesota 1
8 New Jersey 1
9 Oregon 1
10 South Dakota 1
11 Virginia 1
12 Wisconsin 1
13 Alabama 0
14 Alaska 0
15 Arizona 0
16 Arkansas 0
17 California 0
18 Connecticut 0
19 Delaware 0
20 District of Columbia 0
21 Florida 0
22 Georgia 0
23 Hawaii 0
24 Idaho 0
25 Iowa 0
26 Kansas 0
27 Louisiana 0
28 Maine 0
29 Massachusetts 0
30 Mississippi 0
31 Missouri 0
32 Montana 0
33 Nebraska 0
34 Nevada 0
35 New Hampshire 0
36 New Mexico 0
37 New York 0
38 North Carolina 0
39 North Dakota 0
40 Ohio 0
41 Oklahoma 0
42 Pennsylvania 0
43 Puerto Rico 0
44 Rhode Island 0
45 South Carolina 0
46 Tennessee 0
47 Texas 0
48 Utah 0
49 Vermont 0
50 Washington 0
51 West Virginia 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 392,133 1 99
Crowley Colorado 363,966 2 99
Bent Colorado 276,493 3 99
Dewey South Dakota 250,339 4 99
Lincoln Arkansas 246,238 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 142,993 193 93
York South Carolina 113,460 986 68
Richland South Carolina 113,412 987 68
Orange California 85,680 2261 28
Pierce Washington 60,906 2833 9

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Foard Texas 8,658 1 99
Galax city Virginia 8,350 2 99
Jerauld South Dakota 7,948 3 99
Hancock Georgia 7,922 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 7,856 5 99
Orange California 1,595 1848 41
Richland South Carolina 1,373 2097 33
York South Carolina 1,370 2101 33
Davidson Tennessee 1,367 2106 32
Pierce Washington 767 2734 12

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons